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The iDeA$ Strategy

Systematic, evidence-based investing. Built on price action, validated by 20 years of data, refined through 50+ months of live execution.

The Foundation

Why Price Action?

In India, earnings season plays a far less critical role in driving stock market returns than in the US. India's market is driven primarily by price action and momentum — not quarterly earnings surprises.

Expanding corporate profits over decades creates broad optimism, but short-term returns are explained overwhelmingly by relative price strength and rate of change — not fundamental reassessments.

This is the core insight behind Tq iDeA$: by focusing purely on price momentum from the Nifty 750, we eliminate noise and focus on what actually predicts near-to-medium term equity returns in India.

The model is built on monthly rate-of-change — giving each idea enough time to develop, while avoiding the over-churn that destroys alpha in most active strategies.

Reference: The impact of earnings season on returns — LiveMint. Market efficiency considerations apply.

Key Observations Behind the Model
01

Earnings ≠ Returns (India)

India's equity returns show low correlation to quarterly earnings beats. Price momentum is the dominant factor.

02

Rate of Change is the Signal

12-month price rate-of-change reliably identifies stocks with sustained institutional accumulation.

03

Monthly Cadence Reduces Noise

Monthly signals capture trend changes without reacting to short-term volatility or market noise.

04

Law of Large Numbers Works for You

As monthly observations grow, performance converges to the true mean — reducing outlier dependency.

The Process

Price Action Framework with Human in the Loop

A four-stage funnel from 750 stocks to 7–12 high-conviction positions — executed with discipline, reviewed monthly.

01
Universe
Nifty 750 — The Full Investable Landscape
Defined by NSE market-cap indices: Nifty 500 + Microcap 250. Covers large, mid, small, and micro cap — 750 securities representing the breadth of Indian listed equity.
Nifty 500Microcap 250NSE Defined750 Stocks
02
Screening
Rate-of-Change Momentum Screen
Every stock screened using 12-month price rate-of-change. Identifies stocks with sustained upward momentum — a proven proxy for underlying business strength and institutional demand in India.
12-Month Price ActionRate of ChangeNon-Discretionary
03
Ranking
Relative Strength Ranking → Top 25–50
Stocks ranked by highest momentum. The top 25–50 represent the highest-conviction names. A relative strength filter further refines to the strongest performers.
Relative StrengthTop 25–50 StocksMomentum Filter
04
Selection
Ultra Filter → 7–12 High-Conviction Picks
Ultra filter selects 7–12 stocks based on 20-year historical pattern analysis. Human-in-the-loop validates before positions are taken. Rebalancing occurs strictly on the first trading day of each month.
20-Year Pattern Analysis7–12 StocksMonthly RebalanceHuman Validation
What the Analysis Said

9 Years Backtest.
50 Months Live.

Consistent drawdowns. Improving win rates. Live performance aligning with and exceeding backtested expectations.

Live Performance · Apr 2021 – Jun 2025 · 50 Months
~50%
CAGR · live & verified
Max Drawdown–22%
Win Rate78.9%
Best Winning Streak19 months
Worst Losing Streak–4 months
Max Gain in a Month+16.0%
Max Loss in a Month–12.7%
Backtest · Mar 2012 – Mar 2021 · 108 Months
57.1%
CAGR over 9 years
Max Drawdown–22.57%
Win Rate74.3%
Best Winning Streak13 months
Worst Losing Streak–4 months
Max Gain in a Month+25.34%
Max Loss in a Month–18.95%
Outperformance
vs Nifty 500
130d
Avg holding
winning stock
₹5Cr
Avg position size
(₹50Cr portfolio)
12
Defined trades
per year

There are no assured returns in equity investing. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Model Architecture

Two Portfolio Constructs

The iDeA$ methodology powers two models — one high-octane, one measured — both following the same disciplined monthly process.

High Octane
Midcap / Smallcap / Microcap Portfolio
High-conviction momentum picks from the full Nifty 750 including Microcap 250. For investors with higher risk tolerance and longer horizons.
7–12 stocks
Equal-weight
~50%
Live CAGR
Nifty 750
Full universe
3×
vs Nifty 500
Measured
Nifty 250 — Relative Boring Portfolio
Conservative construct from the Nifty 250 — larger, more liquid names with lower volatility and reduced drawdown characteristics.
Nifty 250
Universe
Lower DD
Drawdown profile
Same process
Monthly rebalance
EW
Equal-weight

Why ₹5 Cr vs MF's ₹275 Cr avg? Most small cap mutual funds average ₹275 Cr per stock across ~100 stock portfolios. Tq iDeA$ averages ₹5–7 Cr per stock in a 7–12 stock portfolio — ensuring genuine liquidity in entry and exit. Orders exceeding 20% of daily volume are managed via market protection orders.

Risk Framework

Risk Management by Design

Every structural decision in iDeA$ is built with risk containment in mind — not as an afterthought.

Equal Weight = No Concentration
Every position carries the same capital weight. No single stock can disproportionately harm the portfolio.
Cut Losses Early, Ride Winners
Avg holding for a loser: 55 days. Avg for a winner: 130 days. The process is tuned accordingly.
Liquidity-First Sizing
At ₹5 Cr per stock, positions are well within market float. Market protection mechanisms guard large orders.
Zero Leverage, Zero Derivatives
Long only. No IPOs. No SME. No leverage. No derivatives. Clean equity — nothing creates uncontrolled downside.
Non-Discretionary = Emotion-Free
Entry and exit signals are fully quant-driven. Human oversight validates — it never overrides the model.
Drawdown Bounded at –22%
Both backtest and live data show consistent max drawdown near –22% — a realistic worst-case planning figure.

"When you trade longer, you only need to be right 51% of the time — build superior returns with a data-driven model that has consistently generated ~50% live CAGR, outperforming India's top funds through a disciplined, monthly rebalanced Nifty 750 portfolio."

Tq iDeA$ Investment Thesis  ·  [email protected]
⚠ There are no assured returns in equity investing. All information is for educational purposes only — not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Consult your financial advisor before investing.